South asias regional nuclear deterrence structure 6. South asian nuclear arms race accelerates amid indiapakistan standoff by sampath perera 28 february 2017 recent weeks have witnessed a further intensification of the nuclear arms race in south asia, with archrivals india and pakistan both carrying out tests of nuclearcapable missiles and making bellicose war threats. The deeply ingrained, traditional hostility between india and pakistan accentuates the dangers inherent in a south asian nuclear proliferation. But chinas glcms raise the stakes of a possible arms race between the united states and china in the asia pacific. If you continue browsing the site, you agree to the use of cookies on this website. Pdf nuclear arms race in south asia muhammed yusen. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition. Ensuring that a proper northeast asian nuclear arms race does not take off, however improbable one might seem, should thus remain a matter of high priority for both regional and us policymakers.
Guidelines for the new administration since india and pakistan are unlikely to end their nuclear rivalry ei. Asia with the prospect of an ensuing arms race and a catastrophic nuclear war as inevitable. How can domestic and international efforts at resolving con. My case study of south asias 1990war scare is framed by severalimportant issues in the scholarly analysis of. Michael krepon is cofounder of the stimson center, a think tank, and director. In june 2010, vietnam announced that it plans to build 14 nuclear reactors at eight sites in five provinces by 2030, to satisfy at least 15 gw nuclear power i. South korea relations congressional research service summary overview south korea officially the republic of korea, or rok is one of the united states most important strategic and economic partners in asia. Soviet cold war nuclear arms race, occurs when countries increase their military forces to gain superiority over one another. The nuclear age opened during world war ii with a blinding light. Nuclear weapons and conflict in south asia stephen p. An ambitious strategy to increase the nuclear share to 2025% by 2050 has also been outlined. The conflict between india and pakistan may be the most serious and imminent danger to the south asian region and humanity over the. Nuclear arms race in south asia institute of strategic studies. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie.
Wishing for a good outcome to the inevitable indiapakistan nuclear arms race complicated by chinas role as a rival to india and a supplier to pakistanis not. In 2015, stimson will launch a groundbreaking, open online course on nuclear issues in south asia that will give thousands of. In the final sections, potential restraints on further proliferation are assessed, and specific steps are outlined that, if taken by the international community, could slow or halt south asias passage to overt weaponization. In south asia, india and pakistan have also engaged in a technological nuclear arms race since the 1970s. The nuclear competition started in 1974 with india detonating the device, codename smiling buddha, at the pokhran region of the rajasthan state. If anything, the region has witnessed increased regional tensions, a rise in religious extremism, a growing arms race, tense standoffs, and even armed conflict.
After crossing the nuclear rubicon in may 1998, india and pakistan, the two nations of south asia. Speculations on the f uture of nuclear s outh a sia pervez hoodbhoy and zia mian the future of nuclear south asia is inextricably linked to power and politics in pakistan and india and to the global nuclear order. With expansive and costly nuclear arsenal modernizations underway in the united states, russia, and the other established nuclear weapon states, the bomb now seems ready for a second life. Trajectories, priorities, and risks 8 defense spending and nuclear weapons in south asia india likely spends at least four percent of its defense budget on nuclear weapons, while nuclear weapons account for at least 10 percent of pakistans military spending. South asia, a volatile and unstable region, has been witnessing an escalation in military and nuclear rivalry, somewhat overshadowed by the understandable fears of a nuclear arms race in the.
Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. If it happens, the probability of a nuclear japan will increase, and taiwan, as well as more advanced countries of south east asia, might start wondering why. Even with chinas deployment of a new missile it is difficult to overcome the overwhelming superiority of us nuclear armament. The study of muslim law in south asia highlights two important points. These concerns might be passed off as western media hype, if not for the serious scholars and practitioners voicing them. Dynamics of nuclear escalation in south asia daily times. Although india and pakistan have said they do not intend to conduct further nuclear tests they carry out missile tests on a regular basis. Sep, 2012 this recent spate of nuclear capable missile tests in south asia has revived longstanding concerns that india and pakistan are entangled in a nuclear arms race.
May 26, 2016 india joining nsg will escalate nuclear race in south asia. May 04, 2016 with expansive and costly nuclear arsenal modernizations underway in the united states, russia, and the other established nuclear weapon states, the bomb now seems ready for a second life. Potential consequences of nuclear politics in south asia. In the aftermath of the indian and pakistani nuclear tests, foreign affairs has published against nuclear apartheid by indias senior adviser on defense and foreign affairs, jaswant singh, septemberoctober 1998 and dealing with the bomb in south asia by deputy secretary of state strobe talbott marchapril 1999. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. Nuclear weapons and nuclear war in south asia brookings. Nuclear arms race between india and pakistan rises slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bomb provides the emerging generation of strategic analysts in india, pakistan, and elsewhere a platform to study nuclear competition and dangers on the subcontinent. The shift in the us strategy in south asia demonstrates that india is the chosen and preferred strategic ally of the us to safeguard its interests in asia. The paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. This is an appeal to the subscribers, contributors, advertisers and wellwishers of economic and political weekly epw, published by sameeksha trust, a public charitable trust registered with the office of the charity commissioner, mumbai, india. After 50 years of independence, yet impoverished by an unremitting arms race, the people of india. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india. Weapons and deterrence stability naval postgraduate school.
Apr 14, 2015 south asia, a volatile and unstable region, has been witnessing an escalation in military and nuclear rivalry, somewhat overshadowed by the understandable fears of a nuclear arms race in the. Opinion nuclear race on the subcontinent the new york times. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough. Pdf arms race and development debate in south asia sanchita. An unchecked nuclear arms race would have a negative effect on the fragile security environment of the asian continent in general, and south asia in particular, pushing the region toward a perpetual security trilemma in which actions taken by india to defend against china trigger insecurity in. I will argue below that india and pakistan were deterred from war in 1990by each sides knowledge that the other was nuclear weaponcapable, and therefore that any military hostilities could have escalated to the nuclear level. The south asian experience rabia akhtar, university of lahore, pakistan the south asian experience of indian and pakistani nuclearization and the lessons learnt. On the one hand the concerns regarding further proliferation and fear of possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists or rogue regimes enhanced. The politics of south asias nuclear crisis princeton science. The nuclear race in south asia has spawned a parallel missile race as each country seeks to develop medium and longrange missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Balachandran and others published nuclear arms race in south asia.
Military expenditure in south asia was sustained by the indianpakistani arms race based on the kashmir conflict, exacerbated by nuclear testing by both. On the one hand the concerns regarding further proliferation and fear of possible acquisition of nuclear weapons. Increasingly subject to the same exterminist forces, south asia may be. The paper traces the nuclear arms competition between the two south asian rivals and. South asian studies a research journal of south asian studies vol. This recent spate of nuclearcapable missile tests in south asia has revived longstanding concerns that india and pakistan are entangled in a nuclear arms race. Mar 27, 2018 an unchecked nuclear arms race would have a negative effect on the fragile security environment of the asian continent in general, and south asia in particular, pushing the region toward a perpetual security trilemma in which actions taken by india to defend against china trigger insecurity in islamabad. Mar 15, 2010 nuclear arms race in south asia and its impact on regional security introduction 1. Ganesh, nuclear missilerelated risks in south asia, in the next arms race, ed. The security competition between india and pakistan has been characterised by an actionreaction spiral. Michael krepon is cofounder of the stimson center, a think tank, and director of its south asia and space security programs. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons in south asia and the potential consequences of nuclear proliferation on the subcontinent. This is a piece from nuclear asia, the new publication from the.
The south asian challenge may 23, 2016 nuclear learning in south asia. Nuclear testing and the south asia arms race the diplomat. In 20, stimson launched a new website, south asian voices. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia. In south asia, nuclear arsenal is seen as a great equaliser and the ultimate tool to counter adversarys present or future conventional strength. Pdf the indiapakistani military and nuclear arms race. South asian nuclear arms race accelerates amid india. Cohensouth asia nuclear futures2nicola machiavelli, kautilyas western counterpart, noted that luck or fortune played a greater role in the course of politics than any other factor. This recent spate of nuclearcapable missile tests in south. Causes and consequences of the indopakistani nuclear arms race 5. India has the ability to reduce nuclear tension in south asia within the current treaty framework. Increasingly subject to the same exterminist forces, south asia may be locked in its nuclear nightmare for a very long time. With the passage of time, the indous nuclear deal and nuclear suppliers group nsg waiver have already added more repercussions and now the discriminatory move to try to facilitate indian nsg membership will further erode the strategic stability in south asia.
South asian nuclear arms race accelerates amid indiapakistan standoff by sampath perera 28 february 2017 recent weeks have witnessed a further intensification of the nuclear arms race in south. Nuclear arms race in south asia and its impact on regional. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation. Jun 22, 2016 nuclear arms race between india and pakistan rises slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. Congressional interest in south korea is driven by both security and trade interests. South asias nuclear evolution and nuclear postures of india and pakistan 2. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 2 however, the events of 911 put across new considerations regarding nuclear proliferation. Waning nuclear deterrence in south asia bulletin of the. It argues that now there are possibilities only of a weaponscontrol, not a weaponsfree, regime for south asia. The united states deploys about 400 icbms to chinas 70, mutually deterring the nuclear threat. The gainer and the loser zahid ali khan university of balochistan, quetta abstract the usindia nuclear deal of july, 2005, is a remarkiable development in the framework of. Pakistans quest for security ghazala yasmin jalil abstract the paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. During the gestation period of covert development of their nuclear weapons, india and pakistan underwent a series of military. South asian nuclear arms race accelerates amid indiapakistan.
Pdf the article examines the indiapakistani nuclear arms race and its effect to the regional security in south asia today as a cold wars legacy. India joining nsg will escalate nuclear race in south asia. There is reason to believe nuclear capability may make the chances of war worse in south asia. Nuclear battles in south asia bulletin of the atomic scientists.